* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 38 39 46 51 56 54 50 46 42 34 V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 38 39 46 51 56 54 50 46 42 34 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 37 38 39 38 34 26 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 15 9 9 2 8 9 15 20 41 78 75 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 3 1 3 -3 3 11 8 0 -14 -10 SHEAR DIR 247 238 227 208 185 182 316 285 299 316 292 283 279 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.5 24.5 21.7 17.6 15.8 15.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 147 146 142 137 129 111 85 68 67 67 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -53.0 -51.6 -50.0 -49.9 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 44 45 45 46 51 54 56 59 65 70 62 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 15 17 17 19 18 19 20 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -22 -23 -32 -39 -40 -58 -55 -34 33 93 61 33 200 MB DIV 0 5 -22 7 14 6 24 14 36 37 57 16 -9 700-850 TADV 1 2 6 5 0 2 8 21 43 57 117 96 -7 LAND (KM) 721 775 834 904 978 1107 1162 1189 1266 1493 1743 1508 1100 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.8 23.4 24.1 24.8 26.6 27.8 29.3 31.8 35.4 40.2 43.9 46.7 LONG(DEG W) 166.8 167.3 167.8 168.4 168.9 169.5 169.4 168.5 166.5 162.5 156.4 149.6 142.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 12 20 29 33 30 28 HEAT CONTENT 31 25 20 18 20 14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 16. 14. 11. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. -2. -9. -25. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 14. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 2. 5. 6. 9. 8. 9. 11. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 1. 6. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 3. 4. 11. 16. 21. 19. 15. 11. 7. -1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/22/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/22/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##