* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092014 10/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 37 40 47 51 57 61 64 64 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 28 27 27 32 37 43 46 50 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 28 27 27 31 36 41 46 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 15 12 7 12 8 14 11 11 10 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 -1 -5 -4 -7 -6 -4 -4 0 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 246 241 233 239 226 180 165 186 196 188 236 254 263 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 153 153 151 155 154 156 161 166 165 162 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 138 138 137 141 140 142 147 152 151 147 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 9 7 6 8 7 9 8 8 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 77 73 72 70 69 70 67 61 50 47 46 54 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 16 20 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 76 75 83 78 71 82 83 84 83 86 60 64 57 200 MB DIV 51 56 49 55 61 30 39 9 1 26 17 43 48 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -4 -2 0 -2 0 -5 0 0 0 1 6 LAND (KM) 88 83 53 19 -30 -139 -55 38 135 240 308 328 352 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.8 18.6 18.4 18.4 18.6 18.6 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 92.4 91.9 91.4 90.9 90.4 89.3 88.2 87.2 86.3 85.3 84.2 83.2 82.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 24 6 36 46 82 48 49 52 70 95 103 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 1. 4. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 17. 21. 27. 31. 34. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092014 NINE 10/22/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092014 NINE 10/22/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092014 NINE 10/22/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)