* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 10/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 43 50 48 44 41 36 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 43 50 48 44 41 36 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 35 36 40 44 50 56 61 62 58 53 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 31 33 29 25 24 20 19 19 42 46 39 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -6 -3 -2 -1 2 0 0 -6 -8 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 347 342 331 327 315 300 303 318 22 14 37 15 24 SST (C) 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.3 24.7 25.3 26.0 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 92 93 92 94 95 98 102 107 113 119 123 124 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 79 79 80 81 84 87 93 98 104 108 109 108 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -57.3 -57.6 -58.1 -58.4 -58.7 -58.5 -58.0 -57.3 -56.0 -55.8 -55.1 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 52 52 53 52 48 39 32 22 19 19 23 25 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 18 16 15 13 13 12 17 15 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 154 145 131 115 109 93 77 76 38 14 3 17 16 200 MB DIV -7 -9 -20 -12 -31 -46 -32 -39 -60 -41 -35 -23 -19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 -3 -4 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1762 1821 1881 1914 1948 1964 1964 1917 1847 1754 1657 1594 1605 LAT (DEG N) 34.9 35.0 35.0 34.8 34.5 33.5 32.3 30.6 28.8 27.2 25.7 24.3 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 29.7 30.4 31.1 31.6 32.2 32.9 33.5 33.8 33.7 33.3 32.7 32.3 32.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 9 9 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. 0. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -3. -8. -14. -18. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -10. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 15. 13. 9. 6. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 10/22/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 10/22/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)