* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 37 39 46 51 54 45 38 34 33 33 V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 37 39 46 51 54 45 38 34 33 33 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 36 37 39 39 35 28 21 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 17 12 6 3 7 15 25 33 26 43 65 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 1 -2 -1 1 0 1 0 -8 -8 SHEAR DIR 241 231 220 210 169 271 297 288 316 328 300 284 272 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 27.7 26.8 25.1 23.2 19.9 16.9 15.4 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 146 146 140 132 116 99 67 68 67 67 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -52.9 -51.7 -50.2 -49.6 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 47 47 47 49 55 62 65 64 63 68 69 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 15 16 16 17 19 17 18 18 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -18 -31 -34 -37 -54 -63 -67 -78 -2 117 120 146 200 MB DIV 7 -23 -9 2 5 10 3 42 18 54 45 26 31 700-850 TADV 2 5 5 2 2 5 17 33 50 67 124 170 48 LAND (KM) 752 809 872 938 1009 1083 1118 1182 1329 1667 1663 1380 803 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.1 23.8 24.6 25.4 27.0 28.6 30.8 33.6 37.2 41.6 45.3 48.5 LONG(DEG W) 167.1 167.6 168.1 168.5 169.0 169.0 168.2 166.6 163.7 159.0 152.4 145.9 139.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 8 11 16 22 30 32 29 27 HEAT CONTENT 26 19 17 19 21 14 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 13. 11. 9. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. -4. -11. -20. -33. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 6. 7. 7. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 7. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 4. 11. 16. 19. 10. 3. -1. -2. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/22/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/22/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##