* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092014 10/22/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 39 44 44 43 40 37 34 V (KT) LAND 30 31 28 28 27 27 27 34 33 32 29 27 23 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 28 27 27 27 27 32 35 37 37 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 11 7 5 11 10 14 20 22 21 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -5 -3 -4 -4 -7 -4 -2 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 243 243 245 240 182 193 172 205 223 237 259 272 275 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 155 153 155 160 159 157 159 166 165 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 141 139 141 145 143 142 145 152 149 143 142 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 9 8 9 8 9 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 68 67 64 59 50 40 40 41 43 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 9 7 9 7 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 79 80 75 71 72 74 69 55 51 41 37 43 39 200 MB DIV 39 40 48 42 24 23 18 -9 7 14 0 -18 0 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -4 1 1 2 5 5 LAND (KM) 77 29 -9 -49 -104 -57 -11 33 123 228 263 279 303 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.5 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.5 18.2 18.3 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 91.9 91.4 90.9 90.3 89.8 88.7 88.0 87.3 86.4 85.4 84.3 83.9 83.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 4 4 5 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 18 21 3 35 29 82 16 42 50 52 62 74 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -5. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 14. 14. 13. 10. 7. 4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092014 NINE 10/22/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092014 NINE 10/22/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092014 NINE 10/22/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED