* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 10/22/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 34 36 40 42 44 46 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 34 36 40 42 44 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 26 26 27 30 34 39 45 49 51 51 51 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 36 33 28 23 21 14 10 14 38 21 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -3 0 1 0 0 7 -3 -12 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 345 334 328 321 307 320 303 46 46 43 69 58 168 SST (C) 23.6 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.9 25.6 26.2 26.8 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 93 95 96 98 99 104 109 114 120 125 126 130 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 81 82 84 86 90 95 98 104 108 110 115 119 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.6 -58.0 -58.4 -58.6 -58.8 -58.3 -57.8 -56.7 -55.4 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 49 50 47 44 39 32 25 19 16 16 17 17 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 16 15 14 12 10 8 9 12 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 139 129 115 102 92 70 45 17 -25 -57 -76 -83 -84 200 MB DIV -13 -28 -26 -35 -52 -56 -52 -82 -89 -65 -85 -66 -26 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1859 1887 1918 1932 1947 1952 1969 1979 2012 2055 2132 2285 2480 LAT (DEG N) 34.9 34.6 34.2 33.7 33.1 31.6 30.0 28.6 27.5 26.4 25.6 24.9 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 30.9 31.4 32.0 32.4 32.9 33.7 34.5 35.2 35.9 36.6 37.5 39.1 41.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 13 17 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 852 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 5. 8. 12. 13. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -5. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 25. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -9. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 10/22/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 10/22/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)