* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/22/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 43 49 52 48 38 28 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 43 49 52 48 38 28 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 39 39 36 29 21 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 9 6 6 16 27 41 43 44 66 76 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 1 -3 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 230 207 205 198 234 292 298 303 330 314 300 283 281 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.1 25.6 24.0 21.2 18.4 16.2 15.3 14.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 146 145 143 135 121 106 78 67 67 67 67 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -55.2 -53.6 -52.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.5 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 48 53 61 66 67 72 76 75 58 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 16 18 18 20 20 20 20 20 20 24 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -25 -27 -25 -26 -55 -72 -92 -45 74 82 83 75 200 MB DIV -19 3 7 -2 -7 8 0 29 43 62 31 9 -8 700-850 TADV 6 5 2 2 2 10 23 36 68 88 77 33 3 LAND (KM) 784 840 901 956 1017 1082 1121 1237 1524 1834 1577 1048 469 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.1 24.8 25.6 26.4 28.2 30.1 32.6 35.9 39.5 43.5 47.2 50.8 LONG(DEG W) 167.3 167.7 168.1 168.3 168.6 168.1 166.6 164.1 160.5 155.3 148.8 142.3 136.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 10 14 19 25 29 31 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 19 21 19 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 12. 10. 8. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -2. -12. -24. -39. -56. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 25. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 6. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 17. 13. 3. -7. -16. -24. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/22/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/22/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##