* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092014 10/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 26 29 33 36 36 37 35 34 32 V (KT) LAND 25 23 25 25 26 30 33 37 37 38 36 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 24 25 26 30 32 35 37 38 37 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 6 6 12 8 14 16 17 21 23 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -2 -2 -5 -3 -5 -2 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 250 262 257 196 189 186 196 231 233 267 269 289 279 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 155 156 160 161 157 158 160 163 165 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 141 143 147 147 141 141 145 149 150 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 7 9 7 8 6 8 6 9 700-500 MB RH 74 70 68 68 68 64 60 54 51 49 51 53 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 10 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 78 67 61 67 69 55 46 35 31 28 35 23 20 200 MB DIV 38 48 20 17 3 11 -4 10 16 6 6 4 15 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -3 0 1 2 4 4 6 LAND (KM) 14 -22 -71 -128 -105 10 38 81 128 198 258 253 241 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.6 18.3 17.9 18.2 18.1 17.9 17.9 18.2 18.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 91.2 90.7 90.1 89.6 89.2 88.1 87.3 86.9 86.5 85.8 84.6 84.2 84.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 4 4 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 21 37 32 47 65 24 42 45 45 45 57 63 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 11. 11. 12. 10. 9. 7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092014 NINE 10/23/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092014 NINE 10/23/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092014 NINE 10/23/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)