* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 40 44 50 58 61 57 55 52 52 54 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 40 44 50 58 61 57 55 52 52 54 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 39 41 42 40 34 26 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 5 7 10 5 7 3 18 42 67 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 -2 0 4 9 16 9 1 -11 4 SHEAR DIR 212 218 207 215 256 282 285 293 320 295 290 277 264 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.6 25.4 23.0 19.4 16.6 15.1 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 142 139 136 129 120 98 69 69 67 66 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -53.7 -52.9 -51.6 -50.0 -49.2 -49.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 48 50 52 54 57 55 53 56 53 61 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 18 18 18 20 20 19 20 21 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -20 -22 -31 -46 -58 -46 -21 -7 87 160 126 96 200 MB DIV 4 12 8 6 16 3 28 16 27 25 49 26 15 700-850 TADV 6 2 3 4 6 10 16 24 35 66 126 100 6 LAND (KM) 849 896 947 1019 1092 1179 1283 1325 1406 1747 1633 1096 588 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.2 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.8 29.1 31.0 34.0 37.9 42.7 47.2 51.3 LONG(DEG W) 167.7 167.9 168.1 168.6 169.1 169.6 169.9 168.6 164.8 158.3 149.5 143.2 139.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 5 6 8 16 27 37 36 28 24 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 21 18 13 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 14. 12. 10. 8. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 4. -5. -20. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 15. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 7. 8. 6. 7. 10. 17. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 6. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 9. 15. 23. 26. 22. 20. 17. 17. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/23/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/23/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##