* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/23/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 40 42 46 52 52 52 51 46 39 33 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 40 42 46 52 52 52 51 46 39 33 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 39 39 39 36 31 23 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 3 6 7 13 8 1 10 18 64 75 75 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 -1 -1 9 15 14 13 -6 -11 -12 SHEAR DIR 215 212 260 299 322 305 269 204 262 293 288 286 278 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 26.9 26.1 24.5 22.1 18.4 15.6 14.7 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 141 138 131 124 111 90 70 69 63 59 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -53.1 -52.5 -51.4 -48.9 -48.3 -48.2 -47.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 46 49 53 55 55 52 50 46 45 61 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 16 16 18 16 17 19 21 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -29 -35 -49 -46 -61 -22 -25 11 125 129 162 178 200 MB DIV 5 5 -7 12 4 7 17 9 17 32 17 7 4 700-850 TADV 1 3 4 7 6 11 18 14 41 57 127 95 88 LAND (KM) 922 974 1031 1107 1183 1235 1284 1311 1441 1843 1249 746 650 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.8 26.5 27.0 27.4 28.6 29.9 31.8 34.9 39.5 45.6 49.1 50.4 LONG(DEG W) 168.2 168.5 168.7 169.3 169.9 169.7 169.2 167.3 162.6 154.7 143.9 139.1 139.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 5 7 10 19 32 45 37 15 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 18 13 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 3. -9. -28. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 6. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 11. 17. 17. 17. 16. 11. 4. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/23/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/23/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##