* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 10/23/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 38 40 41 39 38 32 23 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 36 38 40 41 39 38 32 23 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 37 41 44 45 42 37 32 27 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 26 25 24 21 30 34 45 43 60 64 46 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 2 4 -2 -1 -3 -1 -4 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 317 312 314 325 317 315 307 302 325 345 357 358 359 SST (C) 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.5 25.1 25.2 24.8 24.1 23.4 23.0 22.6 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 96 96 98 99 101 105 107 105 99 94 91 89 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 83 84 86 88 92 95 93 88 82 80 79 78 200 MB T (C) -58.4 -58.5 -58.7 -58.8 -58.6 -58.1 -57.7 -56.6 -56.7 -56.3 -56.9 -56.9 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 48 45 43 41 40 37 38 42 46 48 60 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 9 7 7 9 9 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 96 89 98 86 67 51 40 40 31 -8 -28 -41 -71 200 MB DIV -23 -46 -46 -33 -16 -16 5 -17 1 -17 19 -2 -31 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 7 13 23 34 18 21 LAND (KM) 1738 1701 1663 1595 1527 1360 1136 900 741 734 744 591 436 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.1 32.5 31.8 31.0 29.8 29.1 29.3 30.6 32.4 33.7 34.5 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.1 27.8 25.6 22.8 20.0 18.6 17.5 15.3 13.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 9 11 13 12 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 3. -4. -11. -20. -28. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 22. 25. 27. 29. 29. 30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -10. -9. -9. -11. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 9. 8. 2. -7. -14. -22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 10/23/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 10/23/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED