* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/23/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 53 54 59 56 51 46 45 37 25 17 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 53 54 59 56 51 46 45 37 25 17 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 54 55 54 49 42 34 25 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 9 13 17 16 10 1 13 30 67 66 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 0 5 11 17 18 19 -8 -9 0 SHEAR DIR 199 280 312 308 301 286 347 356 297 280 276 271 274 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.3 25.2 24.1 22.3 19.3 16.7 15.3 14.1 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 137 131 126 115 105 89 67 69 68 64 63 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -53.3 -52.4 -51.1 -49.6 -47.5 -47.7 -47.8 -48.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 52 56 60 61 58 57 51 42 41 48 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 19 18 18 19 23 23 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -26 -42 -46 -48 -24 -15 17 99 218 156 130 71 200 MB DIV 7 -1 12 13 9 36 32 23 27 30 35 2 -5 700-850 TADV 4 4 9 10 13 34 27 37 73 82 75 2 12 LAND (KM) 1016 1079 1145 1218 1293 1334 1331 1437 1758 1628 1061 547 265 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 27.0 27.8 28.7 29.6 31.2 32.5 34.7 38.0 42.2 47.1 50.7 53.3 LONG(DEG W) 168.7 169.0 169.2 169.4 169.6 168.5 166.5 163.4 158.3 151.3 142.4 137.4 135.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 10 14 22 30 37 32 19 15 HEAT CONTENT 16 11 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 2. -4. -19. -37. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 18. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 3. 4. 5. 10. 11. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 1. 6. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 14. 11. 6. 1. 0. -8. -20. -28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/23/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/23/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##