* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 10/23/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 27 31 35 40 44 48 52 54 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 33 38 42 46 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 25 26 26 27 27 30 32 35 39 45 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 10 14 19 20 22 14 10 4 5 1 2 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -8 -7 -5 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 132 170 159 163 161 165 161 160 137 168 342 320 343 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.3 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 163 163 165 164 164 155 141 135 134 137 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 148 150 154 156 158 150 134 126 124 127 130 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 9 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 65 63 62 54 56 59 63 64 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 64 62 52 46 44 51 50 47 50 55 57 64 200 MB DIV 13 16 18 23 10 4 11 24 46 63 50 67 62 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) -138 -159 -180 -147 -108 -102 -40 113 233 303 317 296 269 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 17.8 17.5 17.1 16.6 15.5 14.1 12.8 11.8 11.2 11.1 11.3 11.6 LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.0 89.9 89.8 89.8 89.8 90.0 90.6 91.1 91.4 91.6 91.6 91.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 5 7 7 7 4 2 0 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 31 30 49 36 10 6 6 6 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 20. 24. 28. 32. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 10/23/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942014 INVEST 10/23/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 10/23/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED