* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 10/24/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 31 36 39 40 40 40 41 40 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 28 31 35 40 42 43 43 44 44 44 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 27 28 30 33 35 36 36 36 36 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 16 18 21 20 19 14 12 14 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -6 -7 -6 -5 -3 -1 0 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 181 174 159 166 176 196 204 233 237 266 278 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 166 167 163 165 163 156 152 150 149 150 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 156 157 154 156 153 143 137 135 132 135 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 10 10 8 9 7 8 6 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 61 58 56 48 41 39 43 48 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 61 58 60 60 55 54 41 47 41 44 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 31 20 22 4 -2 -1 8 -7 -5 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -1 -6 -2 -1 2 2 5 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -127 -53 21 111 169 125 140 158 125 110 112 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 7 4 2 1 0 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 81 32 39 40 37 47 42 37 36 37 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 19. 20. 20. 21. 21. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 10/24/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942014 INVEST 10/24/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 10/24/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)