* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/24/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 45 46 40 33 29 23 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 45 45 46 40 33 29 23 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 42 37 30 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 14 15 13 16 28 54 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 7 14 8 1 -3 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 339 316 309 297 284 332 312 293 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.9 26.3 25.5 24.4 21.7 18.3 15.8 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 128 120 110 85 68 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -53.3 -52.4 -51.2 -50.2 -49.3 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 53 53 57 59 68 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 19 20 19 18 20 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -59 -46 -24 -11 9 114 127 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 6 26 41 41 33 70 46 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 9 12 22 29 24 41 119 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1228 1261 1302 1316 1354 1510 1828 1515 913 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.6 29.5 30.8 32.1 35.4 39.4 43.9 48.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 170.3 170.1 169.8 168.7 167.6 163.3 156.7 149.4 141.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 13 16 20 29 34 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -12. -12. -11. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -4. -22. -35. -44. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 4. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -4. 1. 8. 19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. -8. -8. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 1. -5. -12. -16. -22. -30. -33. -34. -30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/24/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/24/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##