* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 10/24/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 27 28 30 33 33 33 33 32 31 27 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 27 28 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 23 22 25 26 26 27 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 21 26 25 24 19 15 14 15 16 18 24 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -7 -5 -3 1 -3 -3 -5 -6 -5 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 186 185 188 202 208 208 214 229 274 270 276 262 261 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 161 163 162 164 165 166 162 159 160 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 142 147 150 151 154 156 156 154 152 152 148 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 8 5 6 4 6 5 8 7 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 50 46 45 44 45 46 49 48 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 61 58 46 43 34 44 31 35 24 26 30 30 30 200 MB DIV 23 12 6 -7 -21 -11 19 17 24 29 28 21 33 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -6 -5 -4 2 6 3 0 0 1 4 0 LAND (KM) 10 42 74 116 163 94 -28 -45 -103 -155 -165 -135 22 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.0 17.6 16.6 15.6 15.2 15.1 15.4 16.1 17.2 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 87.5 87.2 86.9 86.6 86.3 86.5 87.4 88.3 89.3 90.5 91.7 93.1 94.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 41 42 40 38 22 67 51 52 51 49 59 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 10/24/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942014 INVEST 10/24/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 10/24/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)