* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/24/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 42 37 31 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 42 37 31 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 41 34 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 15 15 12 15 13 28 51 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 5 12 10 9 3 -1 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 321 306 299 284 305 321 302 289 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.4 25.8 24.5 23.7 20.4 17.4 15.9 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 128 123 111 104 72 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.4 -51.0 -49.3 -48.4 -48.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 54 55 54 52 62 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 19 18 18 18 23 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -50 -29 -22 -11 35 169 149 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 32 33 32 27 40 52 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 12 24 30 28 21 47 178 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1258 1269 1292 1300 1347 1613 1720 1509 908 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.4 30.4 31.8 33.1 36.7 40.8 44.3 47.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 170.2 169.5 168.8 167.2 165.6 160.4 153.7 146.9 140.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 16 19 23 31 32 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -11. -15. -14. -14. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. -4. -21. -34. -43. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 2. 2. 9. 12. 12. 13. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -4. 1. 8. 19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -14. -15. -23. -30. -33. -34. -30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/24/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/24/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##