* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 10/24/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 24 26 29 29 29 28 28 28 24 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 24 26 29 26 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 20 20 23 26 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 26 24 24 22 18 11 14 18 20 20 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 0 -4 -5 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 195 201 212 216 220 212 238 247 263 261 267 257 241 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 159 162 162 164 168 163 159 157 156 156 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 143 148 150 155 160 154 150 150 148 147 147 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 56 56 52 48 45 43 40 40 39 43 44 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 50 46 46 32 25 33 43 39 28 40 43 51 44 200 MB DIV 25 16 -5 -21 -24 9 33 12 35 30 42 21 33 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -4 -3 0 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 53 87 122 114 122 62 0 -145 -125 -53 -51 -162 -190 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 18.8 18.6 18.2 17.7 16.7 16.0 15.6 15.6 15.9 16.5 17.3 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 86.7 86.4 86.5 86.7 87.7 89.0 90.3 91.7 93.0 94.5 96.1 97.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 5 6 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 52 49 46 41 38 38 60 52 47 43 26 41 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -6. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 10/24/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942014 INVEST 10/24/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 10/24/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED