* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/24/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 56 53 45 39 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 56 53 45 39 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 59 57 52 40 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 10 10 10 14 31 58 72 65 64 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 11 12 14 12 13 -3 -17 -8 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 314 304 303 318 332 316 301 286 278 272 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.1 25.0 24.0 22.7 19.5 17.8 16.3 16.2 16.0 16.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 126 116 107 94 67 68 68 65 60 59 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -53.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.0 -51.0 -48.8 -48.1 -48.3 -47.4 -47.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 50 52 52 49 52 59 53 52 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 18 17 19 22 22 24 23 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -36 -24 -13 -1 63 129 103 101 101 89 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 15 14 31 40 50 35 39 12 8 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 25 32 30 34 66 112 120 29 -23 -26 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1246 1240 1253 1289 1381 1728 1812 1287 608 291 319 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.9 30.0 31.0 32.6 34.2 37.7 40.7 44.2 47.6 48.9 48.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 169.6 168.6 167.5 165.4 163.3 157.8 150.4 142.3 135.0 131.0 130.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 19 24 26 30 33 32 23 8 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -8. -14. -20. -25. -28. -30. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. -5. -23. -45. -66. -74. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 21. 29. 34. 33. 32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 9. 10. 9. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -8. -4. 1. 7. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 1. -2. -10. -16. -27. -36. -50. -74. -79. -81. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/24/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/24/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##