* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 10/25/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 22 24 26 27 27 26 26 27 26 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 22 24 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 20 25 26 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 25 22 20 15 12 14 19 20 22 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 2 2 4 0 -3 -2 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 206 214 218 224 222 232 223 255 254 258 253 265 256 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 161 163 162 162 167 168 162 159 157 158 155 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 147 149 151 157 159 153 150 149 149 145 146 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 8 8 6 7 4 7 6 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 55 53 48 44 43 40 38 37 38 39 41 42 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 65 51 39 27 26 39 51 30 34 37 48 44 42 200 MB DIV 3 -1 -15 -12 -20 18 29 34 19 38 19 10 25 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -4 -1 1 6 4 0 0 -1 -1 3 3 LAND (KM) 134 155 175 147 138 47 -23 -149 -174 -114 -118 -143 -204 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 18.8 18.5 18.1 17.6 16.8 16.2 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.7 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 86.2 86.1 85.9 86.3 86.6 87.8 89.1 90.4 91.8 93.2 94.9 96.4 97.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 6 6 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 52 48 45 41 38 37 61 0 48 50 34 48 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 10/25/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942014 INVEST 10/25/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 10/25/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)