* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/25/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 65 62 56 44 37 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 67 65 62 56 44 37 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 67 61 53 37 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 14 15 15 30 57 71 70 62 59 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 9 9 12 2 -5 -13 -12 -7 -12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 301 320 335 330 312 292 275 263 255 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 24.6 23.7 22.3 20.8 17.5 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.8 13.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 112 104 90 76 69 67 63 61 64 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.0 -52.6 -51.5 -50.7 -49.5 -49.1 -48.0 -46.8 -46.8 -47.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 53 54 53 54 67 55 39 41 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 20 20 24 26 27 21 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -15 -7 -3 22 160 138 157 183 148 124 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 21 25 34 26 74 48 41 17 20 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 32 25 22 38 70 172 56 14 -6 -39 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1256 1262 1312 1415 1568 1747 1322 892 705 413 -55 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.6 33.0 34.7 36.3 40.7 44.9 47.3 48.4 49.3 50.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.5 166.8 165.0 162.7 160.3 152.9 144.3 139.5 137.4 133.5 126.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 20 23 25 31 37 29 15 11 18 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -4. -8. -18. -26. -33. -39. -42. -43. -44. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -4. -17. -39. -62. -83. -92. -98. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 28. 35. 40. 39. 37. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 10. 12. 4. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -10. -9. -5. 1. 7. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -3. -9. -21. -28. -38. -53. -74. -93.-100.-102. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/25/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/25/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##