* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/25/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 60 54 47 36 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 60 54 47 36 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 61 52 44 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 13 17 48 71 71 60 49 52 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 -2 -18 -20 -11 -5 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 326 345 334 311 296 276 260 249 249 256 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 23.5 22.0 20.2 18.7 16.4 15.5 15.1 15.1 14.9 11.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 102 88 70 69 69 66 61 60 63 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -51.4 -50.7 -50.3 -48.6 -48.8 -47.6 -46.8 -47.3 -48.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 51 52 50 61 63 51 48 60 70 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 22 24 26 24 22 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -3 6 49 117 173 124 141 183 137 89 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 29 37 39 71 56 40 24 21 27 20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 30 32 25 25 29 179 88 -7 -20 -13 -36 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1273 1336 1452 1639 1876 1623 954 620 500 257 -182 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.7 33.4 35.0 37.0 38.9 43.3 47.1 49.1 49.8 50.7 52.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 166.8 164.7 162.6 159.5 156.4 148.1 140.4 136.7 135.3 131.9 125.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 24 28 32 35 36 25 11 9 16 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 16 CX,CY: 9/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -8. -14. -24. -31. -38. -43. -46. -46. -48. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -6. -21. -44. -66. -85. -95.-101. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 15. 25. 36. 44. 50. 49. 47. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 8. 5. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -8. -12. -10. -7. -4. 1. 5. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -11. -18. -29. -37. -43. -57. -71. -91. -99.-103. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/25/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/25/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##