* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 53 44 37 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 60 53 44 37 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 53 44 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 12 18 29 58 69 71 66 45 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 11 13 10 6 -4 -11 -12 -8 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 352 338 319 303 282 270 260 246 238 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 21.9 20.3 18.6 17.0 15.3 15.4 15.2 14.5 13.4 9.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 87 71 69 69 66 62 59 61 65 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.5 -50.8 -50.1 -49.0 -48.0 -47.0 -46.3 -47.5 -49.0 -52.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 52 51 51 52 63 51 38 41 46 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 19 23 27 25 20 9 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -15 24 115 198 168 190 194 143 106 44 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 37 40 57 67 48 44 12 25 45 32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 18 35 40 71 131 44 24 10 54 28 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1338 1450 1622 1867 1681 1277 897 768 707 381 -231 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.4 35.1 36.8 39.2 41.5 45.9 47.6 48.4 49.5 52.4 57.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 164.6 161.9 159.2 155.7 152.1 144.8 140.0 138.6 138.9 136.4 130.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 28 32 36 35 26 12 5 11 23 30 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 22 CX,CY: 14/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 805 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -12. -18. -28. -35. -42. -47. -48. -49. -50. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -8. -26. -50. -74. -90.-101.-107. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 26. 37. 48. 57. 56. 54. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 13. 11. 4. -12. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -11. -9. -8. -4. 1. 8. 19. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. -13. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -21. -28. -37. -41. -55. -76.-101.-113.-119.-119. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/25/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##