* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 10/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 36 41 42 44 45 42 38 32 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 29 35 37 30 28 29 26 19 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 27 31 33 29 27 30 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 15 13 11 11 7 7 10 14 22 28 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 223 228 229 224 233 228 267 265 265 241 235 236 231 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 156 158 158 162 164 166 167 159 158 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 144 148 148 151 155 157 158 148 145 140 139 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 7 5 6 6 8 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 46 44 45 44 43 43 47 49 48 51 52 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 35 37 46 49 53 45 39 36 27 26 13 12 2 200 MB DIV -33 -29 6 6 -12 6 10 13 39 20 26 31 14 700-850 TADV -6 -4 2 6 5 7 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 217 157 98 48 4 -13 20 48 -115 -91 22 88 137 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.2 16.6 16.3 15.9 15.7 15.9 16.4 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.4 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 83.8 83.8 84.2 84.7 85.7 86.8 88.0 89.3 90.6 91.8 92.5 92.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 8 7 6 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 92 60 41 33 5 2 25 30 49 30 31 12 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 16. 17. 19. 20. 17. 13. 7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 10/25/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942014 INVEST 10/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 10/25/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED