* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 48 39 31 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 58 48 39 31 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 59 50 42 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 14 27 45 69 72 63 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 13 12 7 0 -15 -17 -11 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 330 302 299 290 276 261 250 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.9 20.1 18.7 17.1 16.1 15.3 15.2 15.2 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 68 68 70 69 64 60 58 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.5 -50.1 -48.8 -48.0 -47.8 -46.7 -46.2 -47.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 45 49 57 59 47 42 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 20 24 26 24 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 50 121 221 206 189 218 189 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 45 59 69 60 38 28 10 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 28 57 73 145 104 20 -4 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1470 1650 1873 1692 1572 991 796 701 618 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.2 37.1 38.9 41.3 43.7 47.4 48.3 48.6 48.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 162.4 159.5 156.6 152.5 148.4 141.5 139.0 137.6 136.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 30 34 39 35 20 7 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 24 CX,CY: 17/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 812 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -9. -15. -21. -32. -39. -45. -50. -51. -51. -52. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -11. -29. -52. -75. -93.-104.-110. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 4. 12. 21. 30. 41. 45. 46. 44. 43. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 12. 9. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -11. -9. -6. -4. 1. 7. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -17. -16. -15. -15. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -17. -26. -34. -42. -45. -59. -77. -92.-101.-108.-109. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/25/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##