* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 51 41 32 28 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 51 41 32 28 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 53 46 38 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 22 34 50 61 73 71 54 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 10 2 -3 -8 -16 -14 -7 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 330 315 311 295 287 267 252 241 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.1 18.7 17.4 16.3 15.5 14.5 14.7 14.5 11.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 69 69 69 69 66 60 61 65 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.2 -49.2 -48.4 -48.6 -46.7 -46.1 -46.6 -48.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 50 56 61 66 52 42 50 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 21 25 29 30 23 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 109 170 180 164 224 212 139 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 61 80 64 56 29 20 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 67 91 183 155 43 14 -17 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1644 1883 1748 1571 1192 915 831 489 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.0 39.1 41.2 43.7 46.1 48.7 48.7 50.5 53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.1 155.0 150.8 147.2 143.5 141.8 140.2 136.0 130.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 34 38 37 36 24 9 10 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 30 CX,CY: 23/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 801 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -15. -21. -31. -38. -42. -46. -46. -46. -47. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -13. -33. -57. -83.-103.-115.-123. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 3. 6. 15. 25. 36. 50. 56. 57. 55. 53. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 16. 8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -12. -9. -6. -4. 1. 7. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -18. -21. -21. -20. -19. -18. -18. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -19. -28. -32. -34. -40. -59. -85.-101.-113.-119.-121. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/26/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/26/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##