* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 10/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 38 42 45 48 52 54 59 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 38 42 45 48 52 54 59 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 29 31 35 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 15 13 14 10 11 10 11 6 8 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -2 -5 -6 -5 -5 -1 1 -2 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 151 144 138 144 142 142 137 123 149 144 142 172 146 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 151 151 149 148 148 147 149 152 154 154 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 7 5 7 6 8 7 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 61 62 60 60 53 54 53 54 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 12 13 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -5 -1 3 8 11 28 25 29 19 27 27 33 200 MB DIV -3 14 30 39 62 50 54 50 24 11 13 16 23 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 428 475 490 483 480 479 456 428 392 367 346 356 408 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.4 13.6 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.2 95.8 96.2 96.7 97.3 97.8 98.1 98.5 99.2 99.9 100.6 101.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 13 23 39 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 33. 35. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 28. 32. 34. 39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 10/26/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 10/26/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##