* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 10/26/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 28 30 32 33 31 30 26 21 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 28 30 32 28 27 29 25 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 26 26 29 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 11 11 11 10 11 15 17 22 29 32 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 237 246 262 237 253 268 267 264 265 242 244 242 239 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 152 154 163 165 163 157 151 149 148 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 141 141 143 154 155 153 145 135 131 130 131 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 43 43 44 44 45 45 48 49 51 52 54 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 5 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 43 48 37 29 21 0 -16 -20 -12 -11 0 200 MB DIV 1 -1 -17 -9 3 5 5 38 29 28 18 14 24 700-850 TADV -1 4 5 8 8 4 2 2 2 1 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 230 175 120 79 39 69 151 11 -128 -34 15 20 -69 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.6 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.8 19.5 19.9 20.1 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 82.3 82.7 83.1 83.6 84.0 85.3 86.6 88.0 89.3 90.3 90.7 90.7 89.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 5 7 7 8 7 4 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 57 44 37 35 33 34 37 25 41 22 8 11 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 5. 1. -4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 10/26/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942014 INVEST 10/26/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 10/26/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED