* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 10/26/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 38 44 47 51 52 57 62 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 38 44 47 51 52 57 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 31 35 38 41 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 13 13 9 11 11 9 4 6 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -4 -5 -6 -5 -5 -1 0 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 142 133 131 134 140 107 107 99 129 136 156 143 117 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 149 147 147 148 148 148 147 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 63 62 60 57 52 54 55 55 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 12 11 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -2 4 8 13 22 18 19 9 5 10 12 21 200 MB DIV 6 20 35 61 62 56 85 54 0 -21 -2 22 39 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 471 490 501 516 534 543 547 552 538 495 466 492 541 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.0 11.6 LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.9 96.5 96.9 97.3 97.8 98.0 98.3 98.7 99.2 99.6 100.0 100.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 12 11 10 7 6 5 5 6 9 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 18. 24. 27. 31. 32. 37. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 10/26/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 10/26/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##