* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 10/26/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 26 24 19 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 25 26 26 27 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 25 24 23 23 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 19 19 17 24 25 25 29 35 43 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 1 5 1 0 0 1 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 262 276 254 265 271 264 269 266 262 248 251 248 247 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.9 29.7 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 154 156 158 166 163 150 146 143 142 144 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 141 141 144 147 156 151 137 131 125 123 128 132 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 7 5 9 8 9 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 41 41 43 42 42 46 46 48 50 52 51 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 38 33 31 16 15 14 -13 -20 -39 -31 -34 -12 1 200 MB DIV -14 -16 -10 -9 -12 -6 5 14 12 21 12 13 7 700-850 TADV 2 4 7 7 6 2 2 2 1 0 -2 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 280 251 225 196 177 224 162 24 -79 -76 -52 -61 -3 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.0 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.2 20.7 20.9 21.0 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.6 82.0 82.4 82.9 83.4 84.7 86.0 87.2 88.1 88.7 88.8 88.1 87.1 STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 4 5 6 7 7 6 5 2 1 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 61 56 53 58 62 92 68 61 77 45 21 62 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -8. -14. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 10/26/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942014 INVEST 10/26/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 10/26/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED