* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 10/26/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 33 38 43 49 53 59 66 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 33 38 43 49 53 59 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 25 28 31 35 39 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 12 16 11 8 4 3 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -5 -2 -2 -2 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 129 126 115 109 94 84 99 93 88 83 129 76 102 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 146 145 144 145 146 148 148 147 147 148 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 67 65 65 60 58 60 63 62 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 8 9 10 11 12 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -3 1 3 6 5 1 -7 -9 -2 12 18 24 200 MB DIV 30 44 69 70 65 60 61 24 -21 -29 7 36 74 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 585 622 661 683 705 722 722 711 671 609 591 613 660 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.7 10.3 10.5 10.3 9.9 LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.2 95.6 95.8 96.0 96.2 96.3 96.5 96.9 97.2 97.4 97.4 97.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 2 0 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 21. 27. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 18. 23. 29. 33. 39. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 10/26/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 10/26/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##