* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 10/26/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 38 40 43 43 44 40 38 31 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 32 29 34 32 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 33 30 34 37 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 8 7 6 8 12 12 19 22 30 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 283 232 244 264 277 246 252 240 245 243 251 242 242 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 150 152 161 165 168 166 159 159 157 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 139 139 142 145 154 157 159 154 146 146 144 144 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 47 50 52 52 51 55 56 58 59 62 64 67 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 5 4 4 3 4 2 3 1 850 MB ENV VOR 60 57 50 43 45 24 10 -1 -1 9 21 33 40 200 MB DIV 9 8 12 1 -2 2 22 18 28 33 45 53 57 700-850 TADV 4 6 7 7 4 2 5 2 0 0 0 2 6 LAND (KM) 177 126 75 17 -13 -28 52 -9 -141 -168 -188 -175 -92 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.3 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.1 17.2 16.9 16.6 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 81.6 82.1 82.5 83.1 83.8 85.4 86.9 88.4 89.7 90.6 91.4 92.1 92.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 5 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 29 3 33 74 31 83 48 0 0 49 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -9. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 13. 14. 10. 8. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 10/26/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942014 INVEST 10/26/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 10/26/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED