* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 10/26/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 31 37 42 50 52 59 64 71 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 31 37 42 50 52 59 64 71 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 33 38 43 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 10 10 12 11 8 4 6 5 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 133 123 117 89 87 93 94 106 97 132 127 105 75 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 144 144 144 145 147 151 148 148 149 148 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 67 64 63 58 60 60 63 63 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 11 11 13 15 18 850 MB ENV VOR -5 0 0 5 5 7 3 0 1 14 15 21 27 200 MB DIV 38 70 85 70 83 65 31 -4 -36 -32 -2 60 92 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 634 655 676 685 695 686 668 644 579 529 532 571 620 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.9 10.5 11.0 11.0 10.7 10.3 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.2 95.4 95.5 95.7 95.7 95.7 96.0 96.6 97.0 97.2 97.5 97.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 1 1 0 2 3 4 2 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 16 15 15 14 12 10 10 10 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 22. 30. 32. 39. 44. 52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 10/26/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 10/26/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##