* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 10/27/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 37 46 51 58 62 72 79 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 37 46 51 58 62 72 79 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 32 36 42 49 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 8 11 11 14 11 6 4 7 9 17 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -4 -3 -4 -3 -5 -6 -7 -6 -8 -1 SHEAR DIR 151 137 114 106 107 104 122 132 140 129 118 92 95 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 149 149 148 150 152 153 154 153 151 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 68 64 56 55 53 54 53 52 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 11 12 14 15 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR -2 1 4 2 1 6 -2 -2 1 11 22 37 44 200 MB DIV 49 35 40 47 52 19 -10 -7 17 50 50 79 75 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 666 652 640 624 609 589 573 573 591 632 708 809 910 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.4 11.0 10.4 9.8 LONG(DEG W) 96.3 96.7 97.1 97.5 97.8 98.5 99.3 100.2 101.1 101.8 102.6 103.5 104.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 7 6 5 4 6 14 22 24 23 21 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 4. 4. 8. 9. 14. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 26. 31. 38. 42. 52. 59. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 10/27/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 10/27/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##