* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HANNA AL092014 10/27/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 38 40 42 43 41 38 34 30 27 V (KT) LAND 35 31 30 28 28 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 30 28 28 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 9 9 13 18 20 27 35 41 37 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 1 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 285 294 278 261 262 252 269 251 252 249 251 257 264 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 154 160 164 165 163 152 148 144 142 143 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 144 149 154 158 159 155 142 136 131 129 131 132 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 4 8 6 8 6 9 7 8 4 700-500 MB RH 55 55 57 56 57 59 60 62 62 65 64 65 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 41 35 18 16 8 1 6 13 28 12 6 11 200 MB DIV -2 -17 -28 -15 1 27 14 37 39 35 28 17 -8 700-850 TADV 8 6 2 3 5 7 1 5 2 3 2 4 7 LAND (KM) 32 -38 -62 -63 -31 42 -107 -155 -142 -106 -89 -109 -161 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 82.9 83.6 84.4 85.3 86.1 88.0 89.7 91.2 92.4 93.4 94.1 95.1 96.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 43 60 72 74 25 42 0 39 46 40 27 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -3. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092014 HANNA 10/27/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092014 HANNA 10/27/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092014 HANNA 10/27/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)