* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 10/27/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 43 48 54 59 64 69 78 84 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 43 48 54 59 64 69 78 84 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 38 40 43 46 51 57 66 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 10 3 5 5 8 8 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -2 -2 -8 -6 -6 -3 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 140 122 118 121 120 123 164 147 168 138 123 110 70 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 149 148 148 150 153 154 154 155 154 153 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 8 7 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 61 58 56 53 53 53 52 50 51 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 13 15 17 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 2 6 6 4 6 7 -2 2 3 17 36 42 41 200 MB DIV 28 27 37 43 58 0 -5 4 34 52 54 59 55 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 633 608 587 567 547 518 505 516 530 590 666 749 839 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.3 12.0 11.6 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 96.3 96.7 97.2 97.6 98.0 98.8 99.8 101.0 102.0 102.9 103.9 105.0 106.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 5 6 6 5 4 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 10 9 10 17 33 42 37 30 23 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 17. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 18. 23. 29. 34. 39. 44. 53. 59. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 10/27/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 10/27/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##