* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 10/27/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 31 34 37 43 51 58 66 72 81 85 93 V (KT) LAND 25 29 31 34 37 43 51 58 66 72 81 85 93 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 35 39 43 48 53 59 67 75 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 10 9 9 4 5 6 8 14 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -3 -5 -6 -7 -4 -9 -7 -8 SHEAR DIR 111 111 114 110 106 121 111 114 108 84 52 67 57 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 149 149 148 148 149 149 149 148 147 148 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 65 65 62 59 57 57 54 54 55 54 54 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 10 12 12 14 17 20 21 25 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 0 4 2 -6 -6 -4 4 2 20 25 32 200 MB DIV 29 28 45 50 23 -7 -17 22 30 45 93 48 71 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 666 651 637 626 616 596 583 594 633 705 781 851 875 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.0 10.6 10.2 9.9 10.1 LONG(DEG W) 96.2 96.6 96.9 97.3 97.6 98.3 99.3 100.2 100.9 101.6 102.4 103.3 104.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 10 9 7 8 15 17 16 17 21 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 7. 10. 16. 17. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 10. 12. 18. 26. 33. 41. 47. 56. 60. 68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 10/27/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 10/27/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##