* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 10/28/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 34 35 34 34 30 31 31 33 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 34 35 34 34 30 31 31 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 25 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 23 19 21 27 27 29 25 31 22 29 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 0 4 1 0 -1 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 234 235 244 233 222 241 249 270 277 291 279 263 241 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 149 150 151 151 151 150 147 145 133 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 140 141 140 138 136 135 133 132 133 125 112 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 69 66 64 65 66 65 63 63 59 57 54 52 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 5 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -48 -49 -46 -39 -31 -33 -21 -7 -13 -21 -22 23 200 MB DIV 50 52 59 60 69 26 42 10 30 -8 9 17 28 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 2 2 0 -2 -1 0 5 7 1 -4 LAND (KM) 728 731 673 571 474 334 282 266 325 437 667 997 1470 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.3 20.0 20.5 21.3 22.4 24.4 27.1 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 58.5 59.4 60.3 61.2 62.7 63.7 64.6 65.1 65.4 64.8 63.2 60.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 5 5 8 13 19 21 HEAT CONTENT 49 53 47 36 34 42 55 71 77 48 24 16 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 9. 5. 6. 6. 8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 10/28/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952014 INVEST 10/28/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 10/28/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)