* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 10/28/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 31 31 29 28 27 27 27 26 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 31 31 29 28 27 27 27 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 20 20 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 20 22 25 25 32 22 29 23 31 34 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -1 2 2 2 4 2 2 2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 235 247 239 225 231 238 254 261 262 262 262 260 268 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.5 26.5 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 150 151 152 150 148 146 142 133 122 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 140 140 139 137 134 132 131 130 122 112 99 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 68 67 66 66 64 63 59 57 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -58 -50 -36 -32 -41 -27 -22 -5 -9 -22 -28 -25 200 MB DIV 47 66 72 63 42 37 27 42 21 38 16 26 42 700-850 TADV -4 -2 1 1 -1 0 -1 2 4 11 13 13 20 LAND (KM) 759 656 559 477 404 329 329 380 512 748 1074 1456 1369 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.7 23.0 25.0 27.4 30.1 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 58.6 59.5 60.4 61.2 62.0 63.2 64.0 64.7 64.9 64.1 61.9 59.3 56.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 6 8 13 17 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 48 40 34 34 39 53 70 71 37 24 22 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 10/28/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952014 INVEST 10/28/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 10/28/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)