* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 10/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 18 20 20 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 17 21 25 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 18 23 26 30 34 40 35 30 26 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -4 3 3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 296 284 262 260 262 260 264 259 266 272 280 285 282 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 165 169 165 153 150 146 144 145 145 147 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 157 158 161 156 143 139 133 131 133 133 137 145 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 7 8 7 6 9 6 9 7 8 4 7 5 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 58 59 61 62 63 62 64 60 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 3 -5 -14 -21 -25 -27 -29 -43 -48 -61 -65 -70 200 MB DIV 0 -1 -5 8 3 8 19 21 11 -8 -21 -15 11 700-850 TADV 2 6 7 4 3 7 4 4 4 5 4 3 2 LAND (KM) 0 38 49 -4 -80 -185 -177 -153 -108 -71 -85 -98 -87 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.7 16.7 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 86.0 86.8 87.7 88.5 89.3 90.7 91.9 93.0 93.8 94.7 95.7 96.8 98.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 5 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 32 27 81 44 0 0 48 31 16 20 41 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -4. -11. -18. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. -5. -9. -12. -11. -11. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 10/28/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 10/28/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 10/28/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)