* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 10/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 38 39 39 37 35 33 33 33 31 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 38 39 39 37 35 33 33 33 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 33 31 30 30 30 31 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 26 28 25 31 21 25 27 29 36 48 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 -1 -3 14 SHEAR DIR 224 225 236 249 242 261 270 282 290 266 257 256 226 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.5 26.4 25.0 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 150 150 152 150 148 143 133 121 110 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 138 138 136 137 134 133 132 122 112 101 95 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 1 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 65 64 66 62 61 55 53 52 50 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -40 -32 -28 -30 -14 -12 -2 -7 -27 -42 30 185 200 MB DIV 62 63 59 38 33 33 23 15 23 20 27 57 83 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -3 0 -2 5 5 11 10 -2 26 -2 LAND (KM) 602 517 438 381 332 291 329 443 665 994 1401 1170 713 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.3 21.2 22.4 24.4 27.1 30.3 34.3 39.2 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 60.8 61.6 62.3 62.9 63.9 64.7 65.1 64.9 63.3 61.1 58.9 58.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 8 13 17 20 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 36 40 48 64 79 53 25 12 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 3. 3. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 10/28/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952014 INVEST 10/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 10/28/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)