* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 10/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 18 18 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 17 20 23 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 23 26 26 27 27 27 28 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 20 23 24 26 27 36 38 33 28 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -1 5 3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 290 266 262 260 265 256 254 252 256 264 273 279 285 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 165 164 160 153 150 149 147 146 146 146 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 152 155 154 149 140 137 136 134 134 136 138 143 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 55 58 57 58 58 62 62 63 63 63 60 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -4 -13 -21 -27 -27 -26 -25 -29 -44 -50 -64 -90 200 MB DIV 0 5 15 17 13 4 19 8 19 -26 -26 -40 13 700-850 TADV 7 8 5 3 3 5 3 3 4 6 4 4 6 LAND (KM) 86 84 0 -74 -148 -143 -166 -176 -107 -50 13 33 32 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.1 16.7 16.4 16.2 15.9 15.6 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.5 88.2 88.9 89.6 90.7 91.5 92.2 92.8 93.5 94.4 95.6 97.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 5 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 12 77 43 14 0 42 42 31 10 18 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -6. -13. -19. -23. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -8. -13. -15. -15. -16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 10/28/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 10/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 10/28/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED