* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 10/29/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 38 38 37 36 35 34 35 32 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 38 38 37 36 35 34 35 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 33 32 30 29 29 29 30 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 27 28 26 28 31 23 29 28 33 46 45 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 4 2 1 1 0 0 -1 6 16 SHEAR DIR 221 237 245 245 247 271 275 281 273 269 254 242 197 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.1 27.0 25.7 25.0 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 150 152 151 149 147 139 127 115 110 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 138 136 138 136 133 132 127 116 105 101 85 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 0 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 63 64 63 61 56 52 50 49 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -34 -31 -35 -22 -20 -8 -12 -15 -46 -46 196 271 200 MB DIV 56 50 33 40 43 17 34 20 21 14 40 90 103 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 0 -4 0 2 5 8 9 20 18 -184 LAND (KM) 527 457 394 353 323 308 390 545 802 1139 1367 902 383 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.7 21.8 23.3 25.5 28.3 31.7 36.3 41.6 LONG(DEG W) 60.7 61.4 62.1 62.6 63.2 64.2 64.7 64.9 64.1 62.7 61.1 60.6 60.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 9 13 17 20 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 39 45 53 73 69 36 19 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 5. 2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 10/29/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952014 INVEST 10/29/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 10/29/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED