* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 10/29/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 32 32 32 31 31 31 31 34 35 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 32 32 32 31 31 31 31 34 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 27 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 28 26 30 33 26 26 27 29 30 41 36 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 3 4 0 1 -1 0 -1 -1 21 23 SHEAR DIR 232 242 241 245 262 277 278 284 275 260 265 215 181 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.5 26.4 25.0 24.1 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 150 151 150 148 143 132 121 110 105 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 137 135 136 135 133 131 120 110 101 97 70 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -53.2 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 2 0 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 65 66 65 64 59 58 54 52 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -33 -35 -24 -22 -25 -12 -20 -30 -73 -32 225 368 200 MB DIV 57 40 35 52 30 37 21 22 11 19 68 127 136 700-850 TADV -1 -3 0 -5 -4 2 3 8 12 12 33 -136 -271 LAND (KM) 469 417 375 350 336 382 516 743 1058 1426 1162 651 81 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.5 21.5 22.9 24.9 27.4 30.4 34.3 39.9 46.2 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 61.9 62.5 63.0 63.5 64.2 64.4 63.9 62.3 60.7 59.1 57.8 56.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 6 9 12 15 19 24 31 32 HEAT CONTENT 35 39 47 55 64 76 44 26 19 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 10/29/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952014 INVEST 10/29/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 10/29/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)