* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 10/29/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 30 31 31 32 31 31 31 33 30 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 30 31 31 32 31 31 31 33 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 28 26 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 26 30 34 32 21 28 28 33 42 47 40 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 4 2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 17 -1 SHEAR DIR 244 243 242 256 268 274 285 270 270 256 256 221 189 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 27.9 27.0 25.3 24.5 20.0 11.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 150 150 149 146 137 127 111 106 85 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 135 134 135 135 132 126 116 101 97 79 69 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.9 -54.0 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 7 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 65 64 63 60 58 57 55 57 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -32 -18 -14 -18 -8 -9 -14 -52 -73 27 266 313 200 MB DIV 52 44 49 22 18 30 13 14 20 45 95 177 131 700-850 TADV -2 0 -4 -3 -1 2 6 7 12 17 24 -80 -64 LAND (KM) 417 384 361 362 371 480 662 955 1305 1363 1030 503 -13 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.0 22.4 24.1 26.5 29.2 32.5 36.6 42.3 47.7 LONG(DEG W) 61.9 62.4 62.9 63.3 63.6 64.0 63.8 62.6 60.7 58.6 56.6 56.0 56.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 6 8 10 15 17 20 25 27 27 HEAT CONTENT 37 43 52 60 68 63 39 21 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. -24. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 0. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 10/29/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952014 INVEST 10/29/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 10/29/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)