* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 10/29/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 34 39 43 49 54 62 66 62 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 34 39 43 49 54 62 66 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 31 30 29 29 29 28 30 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 6 7 9 6 5 3 7 8 1 8 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -5 -4 -2 0 1 -3 -6 0 5 10 SHEAR DIR 211 239 233 223 220 197 224 280 306 1 180 252 213 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 149 150 152 151 151 153 156 158 155 151 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 7 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 57 57 60 60 60 59 61 65 70 72 72 71 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 10 12 14 17 19 22 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -16 -15 -13 -6 4 9 14 3 -2 0 16 23 200 MB DIV -33 -26 1 2 11 26 43 57 49 93 101 156 127 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 3 8 LAND (KM) 529 511 497 515 535 596 704 807 854 860 844 799 702 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 4 6 7 7 8 10 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 20 21 24 24 20 20 18 27 50 40 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -16. -16. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 22. 26. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 9. 13. 19. 24. 32. 36. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 10/29/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 10/29/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##