* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 10/29/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 28 28 26 26 26 25 25 24 26 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 28 28 26 26 26 25 25 24 26 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 28 27 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 32 33 30 21 22 23 31 32 48 57 59 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 1 2 1 -2 -3 0 -1 19 12 -2 SHEAR DIR 237 244 258 270 280 282 277 264 251 251 206 181 176 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.5 26.2 25.2 24.6 13.9 8.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 152 150 148 145 132 119 111 107 72 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 137 137 135 135 133 122 109 102 97 69 66 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -51.6 -47.9 -46.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 7 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 62 64 63 60 58 54 51 48 40 47 51 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -8 -9 -9 -6 -3 -16 -34 -56 72 261 389 369 200 MB DIV 56 47 22 19 29 29 17 12 33 84 118 102 108 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 0 3 6 8 9 0 1 -153 -236 -28 LAND (KM) 295 271 259 273 294 432 667 989 1382 1072 547 61 59 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.5 20.9 22.3 24.4 27.1 30.4 34.6 39.9 45.1 49.1 LONG(DEG W) 63.1 63.6 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.1 64.8 63.5 62.0 60.7 61.0 60.4 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 6 9 13 16 20 24 26 23 20 HEAT CONTENT 45 51 59 68 74 57 28 9 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -22. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 3. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 10/29/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952014 INVEST 10/29/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 10/29/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED