* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 10/29/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 36 42 53 62 68 74 83 85 78 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 36 42 53 62 68 74 83 85 78 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 34 37 42 48 53 61 69 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 0 4 6 5 4 2 6 11 5 4 2 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -4 -5 -2 0 -1 -6 -6 0 10 11 SHEAR DIR 238 72 160 162 139 139 58 3 24 30 46 225 199 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 150 150 149 148 150 151 155 157 156 150 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 57 60 59 58 58 60 63 68 69 72 71 70 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 10 13 15 17 18 21 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -21 -21 -14 -6 9 16 11 7 1 -3 5 12 200 MB DIV -24 10 20 25 35 66 43 77 69 91 113 136 99 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 1 4 13 LAND (KM) 613 611 614 641 671 756 860 938 978 976 922 791 610 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 18 18 18 16 20 20 19 33 53 39 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 15. 20. 23. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 23. 32. 38. 44. 53. 55. 48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 10/29/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 10/29/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##