* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 10/30/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 27 25 26 25 25 21 20 21 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 27 25 26 25 25 21 20 23 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 27 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 34 31 24 22 26 28 32 43 45 69 63 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 2 0 -3 -3 1 15 12 9 3 SHEAR DIR 241 257 271 282 289 288 265 258 243 223 198 185 184 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.0 25.3 25.3 23.3 13.5 7.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 152 150 148 142 127 111 112 99 72 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 139 137 136 134 131 117 103 102 89 70 67 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -52.7 -50.0 -48.3 -47.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 60 58 54 50 46 41 50 50 49 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -11 -10 -10 -2 -17 -29 -32 -7 226 264 330 361 200 MB DIV 37 20 20 13 15 19 15 22 47 88 70 98 93 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 2 1 4 5 7 14 -38 -217 -218 -128 LAND (KM) 242 218 211 245 290 445 691 1033 1242 827 382 206 80 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.5 21.0 22.5 24.7 27.7 31.5 36.2 41.0 45.2 49.1 LONG(DEG W) 63.6 64.1 64.6 64.9 65.2 65.7 65.4 64.5 63.4 63.6 62.3 57.5 52.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 9 13 18 22 24 25 27 26 HEAT CONTENT 49 57 67 73 76 51 22 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -20. -26. -32. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. 1. 5. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -5. -9. -10. -9. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 10/30/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952014 INVEST 10/30/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 10/30/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED