* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 10/30/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 34 37 45 56 65 71 79 84 78 69 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 34 37 45 56 65 71 79 84 78 69 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 33 36 42 49 56 63 67 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 4 4 2 7 7 10 2 2 12 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -4 -5 -1 -1 -3 -6 -3 5 13 18 SHEAR DIR 210 192 184 169 135 74 52 33 37 37 274 195 209 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 149 148 148 151 153 156 156 155 150 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.2 -52.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 56 59 59 63 68 71 71 72 74 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 14 16 17 20 24 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -22 -15 -7 2 13 17 13 21 5 11 15 16 200 MB DIV 19 27 39 45 61 53 58 53 89 60 152 120 100 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 2 5 17 LAND (KM) 616 633 650 682 715 819 892 935 979 958 853 692 491 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 6 6 7 9 9 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 16 15 17 22 19 23 45 50 37 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 18. 23. 19. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 15. 26. 35. 41. 49. 54. 48. 39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 10/30/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 10/30/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##